Dive Brief:
- Diesel prices jumped again this week as markets appeared to further price in constraints and pressure on the market amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and the U.S.
- U.S. diesel prices averaged 3.897 per gallon Monday, up 8.8 cents compared to a week earlier, according to on-highway data compiled by the Energy Information Administration, though prices have risen every week in the survey since Jan. 12.
- Recent price upticks previously factored in war risk with Iran and sanctions on Russia, DAT iQ Principal Analyst Dean Croke told Trucking Dive Tuesday, noting there was still some uncertainty. Still, favorable rates, a sharp contrast to the last three years, will act as a buffer from any immediate diesel impacts, he added.
On-highway diesel prices rise nearly every week of 2026
Dive Insight:
Brent crude oil prices hovered close to $80 a barrel for much of Monday and surpassed $83 a barrel for part of Tuesday morning. An average forecast for the year previously projected the cost as $58 a barrel.
Every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed is a few days longer for recovery, and in similar situations, days in disruption can equal weeks in recovery time, noted Keith Prather, managing partner and co-founder of Armada Corporate Intelligence.
U.S. and Israel military forces attacked Iran on Saturday, part of efforts to prevent the Middle East country from developing nuclear weapons. The attack killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“There isn't a permanent cutting of capacity here,” Prather said Monday in an email, adding it’s only a matter of time “before the US military can cut Iran's ability to shoot at assets in the Gulf — and energy will flow. You can bet that's a key objective of all parties in the Gulf region.”
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and borders Iran. It has a 20% impact on the global oil supply, Croke said on a weekly market update Monday, and it’s one of the world’s most important oil choke points, according to the EIA.
For trucking, small carriers and owner-operators could be more exposed to supply disruption due to limitations with fuel surcharge add-ons, Croke said. A prolonged shutdown of the strait could cause a significant jump in diesel prices, potentially adversely affecting smaller firms that don’t have the cash to fend off steeper operating costs, he added. But spot rates are so high that diesel impacts would have to be extraordinarily large, perhaps reaching $5.20 per mile, he told Trucking Dive.
“Spot rates are the real buffer,” Croke said.
Smaller firms may have to negotiate higher spot prices to compensate for increased fuel prices, which could be complicated given March being a lull point in the freight calendar, Croke also said on the market update. Additionally, companies are already facing a disadvantage in market dynamics centering on a supply-based recovery for the freight sector as opposed to one led by demand.
