Dive Brief:
- Spot rate growth slowed in Q2, but better days are ahead, according to RXO’s The Curve report, a truckload market assessment pioneered by Coyote Logistics.
- At the end of the quarter, those rates grew by 6.5% as opposed to 9.1% in Q1, but that’s not an usual setback and capacity is tightening, according to the report.
- “Overall, we’re seeing a continuation of the same trends that have been on repeat since 2023: a muted demand picture leading to lower freight volumes, waning carrier capacity, and a prolonged stable rate environment (though they are increasing on a year-over-year basis),” the report said.
Dive Insight:
RXO predicts spot rates will continue to rise, but that peak could be much lower, with 2014 likely serving as a guide, the freight broker said.
U.S. tariff policy and consumer cautiousness are disrupting usual supply chain patterns, but the trucking market can operate independent of the economy.
“Given how supply and demand work in the truckload market, it’s possible for the economy to remain strong and the truckload market to languish. It’s also possible for the truckload market to inflate while the economy weakens,” the report said.
Capacity is tightening as many drivers seek more stability, switching from owner-operators to company drivers amid unsustainable rates, according to RXO.
“The persistence of these low rates, both in contract and spot, is placing an immense amount of pressure on carriers,” the report said. “If (and likely, when) enough carriers get driven out of the market, it will trigger a rise in spot rates, but the timeline for the flip keeps getting pushed out given weak conditions.”
Multiple analysts suggested the market is not yet significantly bouncing back from a persistent downturn.
“I don’t see rates getting better in the next two quarters because there’s so much excess capacity,” said Craig Decker, managing director at Brown Gibbons Lang & Co.
Jason Seidl, TD Cowen senior transportation analyst and managing director of research, said that while there has been mild improvement with single-digit percent increases in contractual renewals, that's not really been substantial improvement.
“I think the word of the day is uncertainty for most carriers,” Seidl said.
But at the same time, that growth took place despite a lack of recovery in the spot market, he said.
