Tariffs, market uncertainty and manufacturing impacts are leaving question marks over whether a sustained, meaningful recovery can develop in the trucking freight market.
And that unpredictability is stifling long-term planning for supply chains, said Jason Seidl, TD Cowen senior transport analyst and managing director in research. That means an already rattled trucking industry is left waiting for the next cycle or proactively responding.
“We've had uncertainty, and that's not good,” he said. “I'm not necessarily arguing in favor or against tariffs, I'm just arguing to know the rules because that's what shippers want.”
As new tariffs continue to emerge and a Supreme Court decision on the legitimacy of some of those actions remains pending, a three-year freight recession persists, and the economy continues to catch the highest attention of transportation executives.
Over the past few weeks, Trucking Dive canvassed our sources to hear expectations and projections for 2026. Here are three trends we heard are among the industry's top concerns.
1. Carriers are still dealing with sluggish demand
In the current lackluster market, the slightest setback in operating conditions can push a carrier out of the market. But trucking leaders are controlling what they can and preparing for the next upcycle — whenever that comes.
A stalled market has been exemplified by manufacturing woes. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, a benchmark that captures industry sentiment, showed contraction for nearly all of 2025. A manufacturing rebound could help reinvigorate much of the trucking sector.
Manufacturing drives about 60% of for-hire freight, and new housing also represents a key factor for the trucking market, Andrew King, director of operations for Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association affiliate the OOIDA Foundation, said.
Truckload Carriers Association President Jim Ward emphasized, “Increase of supply is not going to save the industry. We need more demand.”
Meanwhile, ArcBest CEO Seth Runser told Trucking Dive that although customers have expressed uncertainty with the market, there could be less volatility, thereby helping demand, as the industry moves through 2026.
But his business is taking an active role in responding to the freight environment.
“We're not going to sit and wait for a market turn,” he said.
2. Capacity slowly tightens
While demand may be the crucial factor in a turning point, supply pressures could change the market, especially if demand remains lackluster, some industry observers say.
Capacity has been seeping out of the system, and federal policies from the Trump administration regarding foreign drivers have put forth pressure — or at least fueled some caution over where to drive. (But out-of-service penalties regarding English language proficiency violations appear to be negligible in overall changes, some analysts say.)
Following the surge in carriers during the COVID-19 pandemic, there’s been a whiplash of exits, and changes may be getting closer to equilibrium, King suggested.
The top questions for 2026 are “capacity, capacity and capacity,” Seidl said in a Dec. 18 interview. “Right now, it is so far a capacity-driven recovery in the spot market.”
That focal point mainly involves truckload capacity, given the excess LTL capacity due to industrial demand sluggishness over the last 12 months, he said.
Continued actions from federal policy over non-domiciled commercial driver licenses could be significant. While federal policy has created some tension in regional areas, that impact on capacity has shown signs of spreading, Seidl said.
That’s already rung true to start of the year, with the U.S. Postal Service sharing plans on tougher scrutiny over non-domiciled drivers of contracted carriers.
Non-domiciled scrutiny, where the federal government wants states to increase required documentation when renewing and granting new CDLs and commercial learners’ permits, could noticeably tighten the supply side.
The Trump administration’s policy to raise scrutiny over non-domiciled operators could mean that 5% of active CDL holders exit the market over a two-year period, according to an interim final rule. That phaseout could be delayed or changed, as the initial rollout prompted legal challenges and a temporary halt to implementation.
“I'm fully expecting further states to be to be named,” Seidl said ahead of Colorado also joining a list of states being warned by the federal goverment to fix compliance issues or have funding suspended. Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New York have also received such warnings, and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration is taking that a step further with California by withholding approximately $160 million from the state, Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said.
3. Trucking firms aim for flexibility
Given the uncertainty and challenging freight environment, trucking firms will have to turn to a tried-and-true response: flexibility, stakeholders said.
Sometimes that will be in the form of switching from an owner-operator to leased-on arrangement, where a business connects with another’s operating authority for a time.
“That helps insulate them from some of the costs and the volatility with rates,” King said.
Additionally, OOIDA members can be more flexible on “what they're hauling and where they're hauling in order to help keep themselves afloat,” he said.
Carriers like Elk Grove, Illinois-based Moscoso Express say they have that flexible approach in mind.
“We are proactively positioning Moscoso Express to withstand uncontrollable market shifts that could impact freight availability, including demand contractions or sudden capacity changes,” Elizabeth Moscoso, the company’s president, said in an email.
She said the carrier maintains an optimistic outlook for 2026 and believes “preparation and adaptability will continue to be key drivers of success.”
