Spot linehaul pricing increased by over 23% from March 2025 through February 2026 while contract rates rose by 5%, according to a U.S. Bank report released Wednesday.
The gap between contract and spot price closed in, from 39 cents per mile a year ago to roughly 11 cents per mile by March 2026. “This narrowing reflects spot catching up to contract levels,” the report said.
“What we’re seeing in early 2026 is a freight market beginning to rebalance, with spot rates improving modestly while contract pricing has remained relatively steady,” Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics, said in a news release.
That faster rate of increase for spot rates has continued in recent months. Contract pricing in the bank’s freight payment index reached $2.12, up from $2.10 in January and $2.08 in December, whereas spot rates in recent months rose by 10 cents to $2.01.
“The latest data shows early signs of change in freight pricing as spot and contract rates begin to move closer together,” Jeff Pape, head of relationship management for U.S. Bank Freight Payment, said in the release.
Tightening supply is pressuring the system amid cost and regulatory pressures and lackluster demand. Severe weather with three winter storms led to spot rate gains, noted DAT Freight & Analytics, a partner in the report.
“The truckload market has stayed stubbornly inverted (spot rates below contract rates) for three and a half years,” DAT iQ noted in a Signal Report released Thursday, noting contract rates have essentially stayed flat in recent years while the spot market has “slowly tightened at a glacial pace.”
Nevertheless, dry van spot rates rose faster than contract rates in February, making a spot premium ratio the highest increase since February 2022, DAT said. Rising spot rates can pressure contract rates, giving early signs of change.
“Ultimately, the U.S. truckload market in 2026 presents a landscape of cautious optimism tempered by significant external risks,” DAT also said in the Signal Report. “While the worst of the freight volume downturn appears to be in the rearview mirror, trucking companies are not yet experiencing a strong expansion phase.”
DAT iQ’s 12-month forecast calls for dry van contract rates to rise about 8% and spot rates around 12%, the analytics business said in an email.
“For shippers still operating on last year’s pricing, the window to lock in favorable terms is probably closed, and that’s before the fuel cost surge works its way into the numbers,” DAT said.
