Dive Brief:
- U.S. Bank freight indices showed positive signs from Q1 to Q2 in the trucking market amid some long-awaited tightening in capacity, according to a recent report.
- The bank's shipment index rose 2.4% compared to the previous quarter, while its spend index was up 1.2%. Shipments and spending were down 9.8% and 4.9%, respectively, year over year
- “There are signs the industry is beginning to rebalance, even if the road ahead remains bumpy,” American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said in the bank’s report.
Dive Insight:
Mixed economic activity, including frontloading and fallout from tariffs, has mired possible gains in the trucking market, but capacity has ultimately tightened, the report found.
While bankruptcies and other carrier exits are changing the supply landscape, trucking firms are also reducing their own fleets. Carriers such as J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings reduced their average truck counts, while Werner Enterprises grew its average truck count from Q1 to Q2, according to earnings filings.
“Some fleets exited the industry, while many existing carriers have been working on right-sizing their fleets to bring capacity in line with demand,” the report said. “While it is too early to say the freight market has definitively turned the corner, the second quarter of 2025 was a very good step in the right direction.”
Despite that projection, the Laredo Motor Carriers Association has seen multiple carriers reduce their fleets amid decreased volumes. That market pressure has weighed on firms that still have insurance premiums and equipment financing payments, Chairman Jerry Maldonado told Trucking Dive in an interview.
“We don't see the market for transportation will get any better this year,” he said Friday.
Nevertheless, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration operating authority gains are outpacing losses, wrote DAT Freight & Analytics Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo. “It's wild that net motor carrier counts are actually increasing” given the current market dynamics, he wrote on the social media platform X.
The overall trucking market has not significantly improved as the industry continues a downturn for its third year, said Jason Seidl, TD Cowen senior transportation analyst and managing director in research.
“Typical downturns before this had lasted six to 18 months,” he said. “We're in uncharted territory.”
