Dive Brief
- A national average of dry van contract rates has remained relatively stagnant for over two years, per DAT Freight & Analytics data capturing tens of billions of dollars worth of freight.
- In September 2025, the average contract rate, including a fuel surcharge, was $2.42 per mile. That’s remained higher than the national average spot rate from March 2022 onward, creating a lengthy span of time that favors shippers.
- “The cycle is like, you just pushed pause,” DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo said Oct. 13. “In the last 20 years, this has never happened.”
Dry van rates in holding pattern
Dive Insight:
Excluding a fuel surcharge, the average national dry van contract rate has hovered around $2 per mile from September 2023 through September 2025.
Month-to-month changes during that time have never exceeded more than 3 cents, showing just how flat the rate has been.
For DAT data that covers around half of Fortune 500 companies, the rates appear to be at a standstill — at least as a whole.
“Rate increases have been modest and, in many cases, isolated to certain lanes and markets,” Adamo said in a monthly report. “Freight imbalances and changes in available capacity drove rates higher in certain markets, as opposed to volumes.”
Putting stress on that driver pool, the federal government has put forth a number of policy changes under the banner of safety to increase the steps that non-U.S. citizens must meet to drive commercial trucks. Federal policy is also pushing states to enforce English language proficiency requirements or place a commercial driver out of service.
Meanwhile, analysts are still waiting for the Federal Reserve to carry out additional rate cuts this year, which could improve business activity and help improve demand. At the same time, the federal government shutdown has sidelined over 700,000 federal workers, according to a Washington-based think tank, the Bipartisan Policy Center.
