Dive Brief:
- Improving rates are masking trucking freight market fundamentals, according to a U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics payments index released this month.
- Contract rates rose 20 cents to $2.39 per mile in August compared to a year ago, while contract volumes declined by nearly 28%, according to data from the report.
- “Until volumes stabilize, headline rate resilience should not be mistaken for broader market strength,” the report said, cautioning that stable rates “do not mean a stable market.”
Dive Insight:
Dry van contract rates have continued to climb, rising an extraordinary 14% from January through September and far outpacing the usual seasonal rise, according to DAT data. They’re projected to rise to 19% through December over the 2026 calendar year.
That’s a sharp contrast to the typical year, which averages about 3% for the 12-month period, per DAT data going back to 2010, a spokesperson for the analytics and forecasting firm said in an email. The only other times contract rates rose this dramatically were in 2020 and 2021, surging 18% and 17%, respectively.
“Spot rates have cooled since the summer, but contract rates are still catching up,” the DAT spokesperson said.
The changes come amid a squeeze on trucking carriers and drivers due to tougher federal standards. Trucking leaders have also suggested other factors are impacting the market, such as the Supreme Court’s Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II decision, regarding certain carriers and freight brokers over safety risks.
Additionally record-high diesel costs are putting pressure on the market. “Higher fuel costs push smaller, thinner-margin carriers out of the market, which adds to an already shrinking driver pool,” Patrick Pretorius, DAT’s general manager shipper segment, said in a news release accompanying the payments index.
Those diesel prices are also pushing carriers away from inefficient deadhead routes, and “fuel surcharges are failing to cover idle time, extended routing, weather impact, and temperature-controlled freight needs,” an October report by C.H. Robinson Worldwide said.
Contracted trucking carriers typically have those fuel costs covered through fuel surcharges billed to shippers. But deviations from dedicated routes can be costly, making repeatable and high-quality freight the preferred option, C.H. Robinson’s report noted.
These supply dynamics are pushing rates higher. A DAT Signal September report projected that dry van contract rates will reach $2.55 per mile in December and continue climbing each month throughout 2027.
